Red or Blue State?

As Texas demographics change, so does Texas' political climate.

Originally published in November 2022

As more people move into Texas in predominantly Democratic areas, Texas’ long standing Republican dominance is becoming more politically ambiguous.

Texas’ “Blue Spine” includes the major urban counties that typically vote Democrat in major elections, whereas the major Republican counties lie in the Texas Panhandle and South Plains, according to the Houston Chronicle.

By comparing the demographic and voter participation data from Muleshoe, Texas (Bailey County), a rural Panhandle city, and data from Houston, Texas (Harris County), an urban “Blue Belt” city, it is possible to see the demographic changes that are influencing Texas politics in the present and for the future.

Before analyzing the voter statistics of Harris and Bailey County, the differing demographic changes in these counties must first be observed to understand how likely their populations are apt to change or diversify.

In just 10 years, the White population in Harris County decreased from 2,318,256 people to 1,720,356 people between US Census years 2010 and 2020. Inversely, Harris County’s Hispanic or Latino population increased from 1,671,540 people to 2,034,709 people, resulting in the top two largest race demographic changes for Harris County in a single decade.

Bailey County in comparison has a less diverse population than Harris County with a predominantly White population. However, between US Census years 2010 and 2020, Bailey County’s White population decreased from 5,392 people to 3,348 people, while the Hispanic or Latino population increased from 4,283 people to 4,540 people.

Though not from Muleshoe, Atirikta Kumar, a UH student from Garrison, a city in Nacogdoches County, Texas, has personal experience with the lack of diversity in small Texas towns compared to the diversity found in Harris County. “The population has some people of color - Hispanic, Asian and black people but my family and I were the only Indians there. It was quite hard being the only Indian kid,” said Kumar. “Garrison is a Conservative, ‘red town’; the town's population leans red. Houston on the other hand shows its diversity in how they vote for democratic candidates who are often from diverse backgrounds.”

After analyzing the demographic differences between Harris County and Bailey County, it is important to analyze the voter participation for three major elections in these counties. Comparing the 2016 presidential election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, the 2018 senatorial election between Ted Cruz and Beto O’Rourke, and the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, it is possible to see how these counties participated in comparison to each other.

Harris County demonstrates an upward trend in the number of registered voters, while Bailey County demonstrates a downward trend. Both counties experienced the lowest voter turnout during the 2018 election and the highest participation during the 2020 election.

When comparing election results from these three elections, Bailey County displays an upward trend in Democratic votes despite it being the minority party in all three elections. Harris County also displays an upward trend of Democratic votes, excluding the 2018 election which received the lowest voter turnout from both Democrat and Republican parties. When comparing the 2016 and 2020 elections, Harris County experienced a higher Democrat voter turnout than Republican voter turnout. Jumping from 707,914 Democrat votes in 2016 to 918,193 Democrat votes in 2020, the Democratic party increased more than the Republican party.

Adolfo Vasquez, chair member for Precinct #879 for the Harris County Democratic Party, has noticed a change in demographics in his district since the 2018 election. “The demographics of [the precinct] are changing so much that it’s going to continue growing to be more and more Democrat,” said Vasquez. “[Voters] are definitely younger and definitely more Latino.”

As observed in the aforementioned race population data, the demographics of Texas are changing as a result of migration, whether it is internal or external. Harris County’s population is more likely to be diversified because the county received 55,475 migrants from other countries between 2015 and 2019 while Bailey County received zero. In general, Harris County received more migrants from either different states or counties than Bailey County.

By analyzing the population demographic data, as well as voter turnout trends, election results, and the rates at which people migrate into or around Texas, it is clear that demographics and politics in Texas are linked by data. The more diverse the county, the more Democrat it votes. The less diverse the county, the more Republican it votes. As populations increase according to the trends supported by data, Texan politics may eventually be swayed in the direction of “Blue” votes overtime, but for now, Texas remains a predominantly Republican state. For example, in the 2022 Texas Governor election, Greg Abbott beat his opponent Beto O’Rourke because of the Republican influence in the smaller counties of Texas. Larger counties voted for O’Rourke, but they did not overpower the votes of smaller towns collectively.